Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.054739 0.062559 0.071349 0.082007 0.094646 0.109230 0.127446
2025-11-16 0.042624 0.052097 0.063654 0.078951 0.098905 0.124387 0.159938
2025-11-23 0.034198 0.044233 0.057366 0.076140 0.102843 0.140331 0.198558
2025-11-30 0.028564 0.038894 0.053313 0.075479 0.109760 0.162661 0.254498
2025-12-07 0.024141 0.034429 0.049656 0.074708 0.116688 0.187811 0.326188
2025-12-14 0.020144 0.029901 0.045104 0.071674 0.119590 0.208227 0.400997
2025-12-21 0.016299 0.024983 0.039088 0.065002 0.114716 0.213944 0.452386
2025-12-28 0.014255 0.022621 0.036841 0.064453 0.121270 0.245154 0.580864
2026-01-04 0.012796 0.021003 0.035588 0.065523 0.131698 0.290055 0.779631
2026-01-11 0.011433 0.019340 0.033964 0.065544 0.140199 0.335583 1.025153
2026-01-18 0.010268 0.017856 0.032424 0.065426 0.148645 0.386640 1.349858
2026-01-25 0.009094 0.016185 0.030233 0.063388 0.151838 0.425689 1.685251
2026-02-01 0.007951 0.014444 0.027670 0.060055 0.151015 0.454366 2.034878
2026-02-08 0.007264 0.013516 0.026672 0.060331 0.160959 0.529059 2.784977
2026-02-15 0.006642 0.012631 0.025625 0.060266 0.170206 0.610712 3.805901
2026-02-22 0.006175 0.012012 0.025076 0.061436 0.184425 0.729055 5.534942
2026-03-01 0.005741 0.011400 0.024440 0.062237 0.198140 0.862541 8.069577
2026-03-08 0.005245 0.010589 0.023191 0.060932 0.203630 0.962140 10.867443
2026-03-15 0.004646 0.009473 0.021016 0.056286 0.193839 0.964643 12.344758
2026-03-22 0.004342 0.009004 0.020423 0.056531 0.205188 1.120495 18.145644
2026-03-29 0.004123 0.008705 0.020224 0.058047 0.223464 1.358620 29.503573
2026-04-05 0.003884 0.008330 0.019762 0.058569 0.237732 1.597108 46.630568
2026-04-12 0.003660 0.007965 0.019273 0.058884 0.251559 1.866854 75.133005